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Punishing the Political Establishment When Everyone Fails: Outsider Support and Invalid Voting


Journal article


Lautaro Cella
Working Paper (Under Review), 2025

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Cite

APA   Click to copy
Cella, L. (2025). Punishing the Political Establishment When Everyone Fails: Outsider Support and Invalid Voting. Working Paper (Under Review).


Chicago/Turabian   Click to copy
Cella, Lautaro. “Punishing the Political Establishment When Everyone Fails: Outsider Support and Invalid Voting.” Working Paper (Under Review) (2025).


MLA   Click to copy
Cella, Lautaro. “Punishing the Political Establishment When Everyone Fails: Outsider Support and Invalid Voting.” Working Paper (Under Review), 2025.


BibTeX   Click to copy

@article{lautaro2025a,
  title = {Punishing the Political Establishment When Everyone Fails: Outsider Support and Invalid Voting},
  year = {2025},
  journal = {Working Paper (Under Review)},
  author = {Cella, Lautaro}
}

Abstract

Research shows that discontent with established parties emerges when they offer similar policies. But why do voters punish the political establishment—even when parties differ ideologically? I conceptualize support for outsiders and invalid voting as two forms of protest voting, ways citizens reject the establishment. I argue that convergence in poor performance, repeated failures by different mainstream incumbents, causes both behaviors. This clarifies how poor performance translates into protest voting: both the mainstream incumbent and opposition must be discredited by past performance. I focus on three dimensions of performance: corruption, economic management, and public service provision. Using survey experiments in Argentina and Chile, I show that convergence in poor performance across these dimensions causes protest voting—regardless of policy differences. Poor incumbent performance alone is insufficient to trigger these outcomes. Notably, voters punish convergence in poor performance more strongly than policy convergence, underscoring that support for mainstream parties requires not only distinct platforms but also competent governance.


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