The Emergence of Anti-Establishment Attitudes and Protest Behavior

Discontent with established political parties has become a global phenomenon. This is true in developed and developing democracies. Argentina and Chile exemplify this trend, witnessing a surge in anti-establishment views, protests, and votes for outsiders. This is surprising, as mainstream coalitions in both countries were growing more ideologically diverse. What is the origin of anti-establishment attitudes and protest voting in developing democracies? 

My dissertation explores this question by focusing on the Southern Cone and employing a mixed-methods approach with survey experiments, text-as-data analysis of campaign speeches, semi-structured interviews, and case studies. I argue that repeated and consecutive disappointing government performance by different parties largely drives anti-establishment attitudes and protest behavior. I focus on economic achievements, corruption, and public service provision. When confronted with multiple political alternatives that have previously been in power and performed disappointingly, voters will be more likely to develop anti-establishment views and express their discontent through different methods: participating in street demonstrations, casting an invalid ballot, and supporting outsiders. My dissertation also examines the rhetorical strategies and emotional appeals employed by outsiders. 

Previous studies have focused on the effects of policy convergence and the poor performance of a mainstream incumbent on partisanship and voting behavior. However, they haven’t fully explored the cumulative impact of multiple governing parties' performances on citizen dissatisfaction. My research distinguishes between anti-incumbent sentiment and anti-establishment views. Moreover, the literature has yet to disentangle the extent to which voters object to established political parties because of their convergence in policy positions or poor performance. Although these diverse sources of anti-establishment views can be complementary, they are conceptually distinct and have different implications for democracy. 

“When Do Voters Develop Anti-Establishment Attitudes and Protest Behavior? Experimental Evidence from Argentina and Chile”

“Building Tolerance for Backsliding by Trash-Talking Democracy: Theory and Evidence from Mexico.” (with Ipek Cinar, Andres Uribe, and Susan Stokes). Under Review. 

“Support for Pro-Indigenous Policies Amid Conflict in Chile” (with Michael Albertus).

“Denialist Rhetoric and Anti-Democratic Attitudes in Transitional Societies” (with Susan Stokes). 

“Anti-Establishment Appeals, Emotions, and Support for Outsiders in Argentina and Chile”

“Chile’s new voting rules may have derailed the new Constitution,” The Washington Post: Monkey Cage, September 16, 2022 (with Eli Rau).

Tchintian, C., Goyburu, L. and Cella, L. (2019). Reglamentos comparados de Camaras de Diputados de America del Sur [Comparative Rules of Procedures in South America’s Chambers of Deputies]. Documento de Trabajo N°18. Buenos Aires: CIPPEC

Caminotti, M., Page, M. and Cella, L. (2018). Sin barreras. La ley de paridad en los municipios bonaerenses [The Gender Parity Law in Buenos Aires’ Local Governments]. Documento de Politicas Publicas / Analisis N°204. Buenos Aires: CIPPEC

Bonvecchi, A., Cherny, N., and Cella, L. (2018). Modernizar el Congreso. Propuestas para el Reglamento de la Camara de Diputados [Congress’ Modernization and the Chamber of Deputies’ Rules of Procedures]. Documento de Politicas Publicas / Recomendacion N°200. Buenos Aires: CIPPEC